Thursday, May 05, 2005

Housing bubble - Diagnostic tool??

'The Anatomy of a Housing Bubble' by Grace Wong, Asst Professor of Real Estate Management@ Wharton, is a work in progress. The author makes an effort to provide a way to spot future real estate bubbles in time to introduce corrective measure before the damage takes its toll.
The author discounts the relevance of macro-economic fundamentals and movements in the underlying market in (fully) justifying the dramatic price upswing, and hence, explores the non-fundamental price component. She takes the specific case of the the Hong Kong housing market which saw an increase in prices of 50% between 1995 and 1997, followed by a decrease of 57% between 1997 and 2002 (percentages adjusted to inflation). She considers Hong Kong to be a suitable setting to draw lessons for markets elsewhere in the world (my uneducated guess: markets in the developed world!!) and predicts the study to act as a diagnostic tool to track movements ONLY DURING the price upswing and not after.
All I can imagine is a futuristic visual diagnostic tool that can predict housing bubbles (different colors for different levels of speculation)...and later a similar tool to encompass bubbles that are worth exploring!!!


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